1.5°C breach inevitable, world must cut emissions 6% annually: UN chief at COP31

A breach of the 1.5°C global warming threshold is now inevitable, but the world still has the power to determine how high temperatures rise and how long they remain above that limit, United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday, calling for global emissions to fall around 6% every year and a much faster transition away from fossil fuels.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres was addressing the COP31 Leaders’ Summit as part of the high-level segment in Antalya. (Bloomberg photo)“Global emissions must fall around 6 per cent every year. Current national plans, including conditional ones, deliver at best one-third of that,” he said, warning that the world was moving “far too slowly” at this stage.

Addressing the COP31 Leaders’ Summit as part of the high-level segment in Antalya, Guterres warned that current national climate plans, even if fully implemented, would put the world on a trajectory of more than 2.5°C warming by the end of the century.

“Science tells us an overshoot above that level is now inevitable. But science is not telling us to surrender. It’s telling us to fight harder,” he said, adding that the extent and duration of the overshoot remains within humanity’s control.

Guterres also argued for climate justice, pointing out that emerging and developing economies outside China account for nearly two-thirds of humanity but receive less than one-fifth of global clean-energy investment. Most also pay two to three times more to borrow, making the transition considerably more expensive, he said.

“We cannot demand that countries transform their economies while denying them the means to do so,” he said, calling for a new Climate Justice Compact based on shared responsibility, shared security and shared benefits. His remarks came as the COP31 presidency sought to put electrification at the centre of its efforts to accelerate the energy transition, with the proposed 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge drawing support from several countries and international leaders.

Guterres also supported the pledge. “I welcome the ambition of the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge. Now we must make it real – and make it clean. The crisis in the Middle East has once again exposed the price of fossil fuel dependence,” he said on Wednesday.

The voluntary electrification pledge aims to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 23% currently. It envisages accelerating the shift towards electricity across transport, buildings and industry, alongside an expansion of renewable energy, transmission networks and storage infrastructure.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen backed the initiative, stating the world had now entered the age of electricity. “Therefore, I support the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, and I encourage others to do the same.” she said during the High-level segment on Wednesday.

UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell also called for countries to move from commitments to practical implementation, identifying electrification as one of the key areas where COP31 must deliver. “We’re working on two tracks, the negotiations, and the Global Climate Action Agenda, which brings the real economy closer to this process,” he said at the high-level segment, identifying electrifying every economy, tripling adaptation finance and improving access to finance were key priorities.

“Up to 75% of energy demand can already be electrified with existing technologies,” he said, urging governments and businesses to accelerate their deployment. Guterres meanwhile said three quarters of humanity currently live in countries that import fossil fuels -- making them vulnerable to price shocks they cannot control.

He also called for faster investment in electricity grids and storage, pointing out that around 3,000 GW of renewable energy and storage projects were awaiting grid connections. However, the transition also raises questions about affordability and access to finance, particularly for developing economies.

India’s position so far has been that the pace of electrification and the energy transition must account for national circumstances, the cost and availability of capital, supporting infrastructure and access to technology.

The country has also emphasised the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Experts say India has already surpassed its target of 50% installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, reaching 54% by July this year, stating its focus should be more on securing the capital needed to make this capacity work seamlessly.