7.8% or 2.6%? Modi Govt vs Subhash Chandra Garg on India’s GDP Q1 numbers

India's economy grew by 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, beating analyst expectations, official data released on 31 August by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed.

The first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have been caught in a crossfire, with a slugfest of unending salvos from Congress party accusing Modi government of using PR to ‘polish the picture.’

Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed the GDP growth a ‘herculean feat.’

The Congress party cited criticism by former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg on GDP numbers to attack the government, saying it must understand that ‘PR can polish the picture’ of GDP but not the economy itself. Party general secretary in charge of communications, Jairam Ramesh, shared a video clip of Garg in which he stated that, by revising last year's GDP by as much as ₹6 trillion, the current year's first-quarter GDP has risen by 2.6 per cent.

"If you had not revised last year's GDP, the growth in current prices would have been 2.6 per cent," Garg told a news channel.

The Kerala Congress also posted an image of a beer mug, showing the Indian economy as the actual liquid and the official GDP numbers as fizz.

Former foreign secretary Garg, who took voluntary retirement from service, questioned the GDP numbers.

In an interview with NDTV, Garg suggested that GDP growth would have been just about 2.6 per cent in current prices if last year's GDP had not been revised down from roughly ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore.

Garg pointed out that real GDP data for the first quarter of the previous year was released under the old series rather than the new one. He said, however, that the figure used as the base for Q1 of 2025-26 comes from the new series.

Garg pointed out that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), which released the fresh data, retrospectively lowered Q1 FY2025-26 nominal GDP from about ₹86.05 trillion to ₹80.00 trillion, a reduction of roughly ₹6.05 trillion, with much of the production-side revision concentrated in services.

Garg's 2.6 per cent growth claim comes from comparing the old-vintage ₹86.05 trillion with the latest Q1 FY2026-27 nominal GDP of ₹88.27 trillion, according to experts.

MoSPI had previously reported ₹86.05 trillion of nominal GDP for Q1 FY2025-26 and now reports roughly ₹80 trillion for that same quarter.

MoSPI responded called Garg's claim ‘unfortunate.’ The Government also came up with an explanation. On 2 September, the government rejected the claim that it revised down last year’s current-price GDP from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore to make this year's growth rate look better. The government said in a press statement that the difference was the result of changes to the GDP series, improved data and successive revisions.

The government said that comparison is not valid because the ₹86.05 lakh crore figure was calculated under the old 2011-12 base-year series, while the latest Q1 FY27 figure is from the new series with 2022-23 as the base year.

The government said the Q1 2025-26 GDP estimate was initially released on August 29, 2025 under the then prevailing 2011-12 base-year series. Under that series, GDP at current prices for Q1 2025-26 was estimated at ₹86.05 lakh crore, the government said.

In February 2026, the government introduced the new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year.

“As part of a base-year revision, the GDP estimates for the entire time series are comprehensively revised to incorporate updated data sources, improved methodologies, revised coverage and other relevant information. Accordingly, the estimate of Q1 2025-26 GDP at current prices under the new series was ₹80.32 lakh crore,” the statement said.

Also, the time of release of the Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 on June5, 2026, the Q1 2025-26 estimate was further updated to ₹80.44 lakh crore, reflecting the availability and updation of indicators and data.