After 16% rainfall deficit in August, IMD says September to remain below normal as well

Despite a few good spells of rainfall during the month, India finished August with over 16 per cent shortfall in normal rains for the month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. It forecast less than 91 per cent of normal rains for September, the last month of the monsoon season.

That means India's seasonal rainfall, for the entire four-month rainy season between June and September, is likely to remain well below 90 per cent. Till August, the seasonal rainfall has been 84 per cent of normal. August is the second rainiest month of the season, after July.

It accounts for 29 per cent of the seasonal rainfall compared to 32 per cent of July. “With below-normal rainfall expected in September, the season is most likely to remain below 90 per cent of the LPA,” said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra at a press conference on Monday.

At the end of August, nearly half the country had received below-normal rains. The IMD said of the 741 districts being monitored, 312 (42 per cent) had deficient rains till August, and another 38 districts (5 per cent) had large deficiency.

Only 290 districts, which included all in Odisha, have received normal rainfall till now. 94 districts received more than normal rainfall, it said. IMD said the El Nino phenomenon persisting in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had begun to have its impact on the Indian monsoon, and that was one of the main reasons for the 16 per cent deficit in August, which was the seventh largest deficiency for the month since 2001.

“Although four low pressure systems developed during the month of August and collectively persisted for 26 days, their rainfall activity was largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plains,” it said. The southern peninsula had a rainfall deficit of over 27 per cent for the month.

Central India and eastern and northeastern regions both had a deficiency of about 16 per cent while the northwestern region received rains that were about 10 per cent less than normal. For September, the IMD said normal rainfall would be limited to parts of Odisha, eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Ladakh, whereas the rest of the country will experience below-average rain.

Currently, a well-marked low-pressure area prevailing over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Odisha will continue to cause rainfall over this region until it moves west-northwestwards by Tuesday. Odisha has, throughout this season, received steady rainfall and has recorded a 25 per cent surplus so far.

North India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, is bracing for widespread heavy rain which will cease by September 5. In August, the entire country, except Odisha, suffered a rainfall deficit.

Among the most rain-deficit states featured Meghalaya (- 58 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (- 41 per cent), Bihar (- 40 per cent), Punjab (- 36 per cent) and Kerala (- 21 per cent).