After Arnab and Murasu, Andhra Pradesh braces for another cyclonic storm

After bearing the brunt of Cyclones Arnab and Murasu, Andhra Pradesh is bracing for another cyclonic storm within a week. According to the latest information from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Amaravati, the current weather system over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by November 18, and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The current weather models indicate the probability of landfall along the North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on November 19 or 20. The low-pressure area, formed over the south-east Bay of Bengal on November 13, intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area on Saturday.

The weather system is moving northwestwards and may intensify into a depression by November 15. Thereafter, the system may strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the south and west-central Bay of Bengal around November 16, and further into a severe cyclonic storm on November 18.

The IMD has issued an isolated heavy rainfall alert for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, saying that the forecast may be updated after more clarity emerges. Wind speeds near the coast may gradually increase from November 15, rising from 40 kmph to 50 kmph and reaching 105 kmph around November 18.

This year, Andhra Pradesh has experienced successive tropical cyclones—very severe cyclonic storm Arnab and severe cyclonic storm Murasu, which made landfall near Narsapur and Ongole, respectively, on the nights of October 28 and November 2.

Two cyclones making landfall within five days is considered rare, and within 18 days after Cyclone Murasu hit the Andhra Pradesh coast, the third cyclonic storm is brewing over the Bay of Bengal. According to the IMD, Andhra Pradesh has not seen three consecutive cyclones cross its coast within a month since 1970.

“Usually, four tropical cyclones develop over the Bay of Bengal in a year. This time, they are happening in a row and two of them have hit the A.P. coast,” IMD, Amaravati, Director K. Naga Ratnam told The Hindu. Most models are pointing to a probable landfall near the coast of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and clarity may emerge once the system strengthens into a depression, she said.

“This time, the cyclone may make landfall either on the night of November 19 or in the early hours of November 20,” she said. Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority Managing Director and RTGS CEO Prakhar Jain has advised people in coastal areas to remain alert as gusty winds may prevail along the southeast, southwest and central coast from November 15.

Fishermen have been advised to return to shore by this date. Meanwhile, the Central team began its tour on Saturday to the cyclone-hit districts of Bapatla, Palnadu, Eluru and East Godavari, to assess the damage.