Amy Acton gains momentum against Vivek Ramaswamy in final Ohio Governor polls: Here's what changed after controversial campaign ad

Democratic candidate Amy Acton has taken the lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in several public opinion polls ahead of Election Day in Ohio’s closely watched gubernatorial race. The contest has gained momentum following a major controversy surrounding a campaign advertisement featuring Acton’s estranged mother, which triggered a wave of criticism against the Republican campaign.

The Ohio governor’s contest took an unexpected turn late last month after Ramaswamy faced backlash over an advertisement featuring Acton’s estranged mother. The controversy became a defining issue in the closing phase of the campaign, drawing attention away from other campaign priorities.

Democrats have increasingly viewed the controversy as an opportunity to strengthen their position in a state that has traditionally leaned Republican in recent elections. Ohio, however, has emerged as an important battleground in this year’s midterm elections.

Once considered a major swing state, it has shifted towards Republicans over the past two decades. The state supported former President Barack Obama in both of his presidential victories but subsequently backed Donald Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns.

Trump won Ohio by approximately 11 percentage points in 2024, reflecting growing Republican support among rural and white voters. Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who gained national recognition during his 2024 presidential campaign, is seeking to become Ohio’s next governor.

His Democratic opponent, Acton, previously served as director of the Ohio Department of Health and became a prominent public figure during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several major election forecasters have given Acton an advantage in the contest.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have both placed the race in the Democratic-leaning category, suggesting that she enters Election Day with a favourable position. Recent surveys have consistently placed Acton ahead of Ramaswamy, although the size of her lead varies between polling organisations.

According to RealClearPolitics, Acton held an average advantage of 4.7 percentage points over Ramaswamy as of Monday. The latest polls also show a relatively consistent lead for the Democratic candidate: The New York Times/Siena University: Acton led Ramaswamy 49 percent to 43 percent.

The survey questioned 717 likely voters between October 26 and November 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. InsiderAdvantage: Acton received 49 percent support, compared with Ramaswamy’s 46 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 29 and 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. YouGov: Acton held a six-point advantage, leading 52 percent to 46 percent. The survey included 2,082 likely voters between October 26 and 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Suffolk University: Acton led 48 percent to 44 percent in a survey of 500 likely voters conducted between October 21 and 26. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Although the surveys differ in their findings, all four show Acton ahead in the final stretch of the campaign.

Acton has also emerged as the favourite in political prediction markets, where traders place financial bets on the outcomes of elections and other major events. As of Monday, Kalshi gave her an 82 percent probability of winning, while Polymarket placed her chances at 83 percent.