BRICS Trade: India Eyes $200 Billion Exports By 2030, But Trade Deficit Raises Concerns

Brick by brick, the 11-member BRICS grouping, which accounts for approximately 40 per cent of global GDP and 26 per cent of world trade, is building momentum to transform itself into a stronger engine of global growth. The grouping is also seeking to strengthen BRICS as a platform for global cooperation and give the Global South a stronger voice.

Industry leaders and experts are confident that India can raise its exports to BRICS nations to USD 200 billion by 2030, from USD 96 billion in 2025-26, with electronics, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and other sectors expected to drive the growth.

Nirmal K. Minda, President of ASSOCHAM, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of transforming BRICS cooperation into concrete business outcomes could help position the grouping as an important pivot in the global economic landscape.

“Deepening trade and investment, emphasis on innovation, digital solutions, infrastructure and initiatives such as the BRICS Startup Innovation Fund can further strengthen collaboration and enable Indian enterprises to scale globally.

These priorities will unlock new markets, deepen business partnerships and strengthen the competitiveness of emerging economies,” Minda said. The BRICS 2026 grouping is at an inflection point, with India among the fastest-growing large economies in the bloc.

According to the IMF's April 2026 Outlook, the UAE is projected to have the highest per capita GDP among BRICS members in 2026 at USD 54,210, followed by Saudi Arabia at USD 37,810 and China at USD 12,706. The three countries with the lowest projected per capita GDP are Ethiopia at USD 1,080, India at USD 2,810 and Iran at USD 3,410.

Despite the potential for greater economic cooperation, significant challenges continue to weigh on trade and commerce within the grouping. Global imports by BRICS member countries in India's top 25 export product segments are close to USD 700 billion, according to industry data.

However, India's share in these imports remains significantly low. India's exports to BRICS countries stood at USD 96 billion in 2025-26. ASSOCHAM Chief Economist SP Sharma said India could increase its exports to USD 200 billion by 2030 by raising its share of BRICS members' global imports to 4 per cent and strengthening South-South cooperation.

However, Sharma noted that India's goods trade deficit with 10 BRICS countries has increased sharply, rising from USD 75 billion in FY2021 to USD 226 billion in FY2026. The increase in imports has pushed BRICS' share in India's total imports from 35 per cent to 42 per cent.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, highlighted the trade asymmetry within the grouping. “BRICS supplies 42 per cent of India's imports, but buys only 22 per cent of its exports. India's BRICS trade doubled, but the deficit tripled: Total trade rose from USD 203.1 billion in FY2021 to USD 417.5 billion in FY2026, while the deficit increased from USD 74.5 billion to USD 226.1 billion,” Srivastava said.

He noted that although BRICS is a major global trading bloc, internal trade remains limited. In 2025, the grouping accounted for 21.6 per cent of global exports and 17.3 per cent of global imports, while intra-BRICS trade represented only around 4-5 per cent of world trade.

Srivastava also flagged China's dominance of the BRICS trading network. “China exported USD 550.8 billion to other members and imported USD 464.9 billion from them,” he said. Sharma agreed that the widening trade deficit remains a major concern, with imports from BRICS countries rising faster than exports.

“China is a key import source and along with UAE, remains major trade partners,” Sharma said. The trade imbalance is particularly pronounced with China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Indonesia, while Brazil, South Africa and Iran maintained nearly balanced trade in 2025-26, Sharma said.