El Nino Watch: the impacts around the world this week

An exceptionally strong El Nino is driving weather disruptions around the globe, stoking food security fears and increasing the chances that 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record, experts say. Here is how the climate phenomenon has been playing out around the world in the last week.

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, with the El Nino weather pattern turbocharging human-driven global warming, the European Union’s climate monitor said on Friday (November 6, 2026). “October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates the Copernicus monitor.

“An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she said. The warming phase of a natural climate cycle, El Nino temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in weather that can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbate man-made global warming.

Experts say it could help make 2027 the hottest year on record. Peru declared a state of emergency across much of the country on Tuesday (November 10, 2026), given the “imminent danger” posed by El Nino-linked flooding, authorities said.

It followed Bolivia’s decision to announce a national state of emergency over the weather pattern’s effects. El Nino cycles can bring heavy rain to Latin America, and downpours have already inundated parts of Peru’s northern Tumbes and Piura regions.

Authorities said more than nine million people — nearly a third of the country’s population — was at high risk of flooding and landslides. In parts of Asia, drought linked to El Nino has raised the prospect of hydropower shortages due to hotter and drier weather.

But for now, Sri Lanka’s state-owned electricity company has withdrawn a proposed price increase, citing El Nino-linked heavy rain that has improved hydro reservoir storage. Currently, about 70 percent of Sri Lanka’s electricity demand is met by renewables — mainly hydro and solar — while the remainder comes from coal and diesel.

The Philippines said this week it has set aside over $980 million for an “El Nino response plan” that will “mitigate the impact of the climate risk on agriculture.” Agriculture accounts for about 8% of the Philippines’ gross domestic product and employs one in four Filipinos, according to government figures.

The agriculture department said production of unmilled rice fell 18 percent in the three months to September on impacts from El Nino and the Iran war, which has spiked fuel and fertiliser prices. In November, the country expects “below normal to way below normal rainfall,” the state weather service said on Wednesday.