Engineering enrolments rose 47% in four years, but net tech job additions fell 70%; why India's middle-class career dream is changing

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(AI Image) For generations of Indian middle-class families, the formula for success was simple: study hard, become an engineer, get a campus placement and secure a comfortable life. An engineering degree was almost synonymous with financial security.

But with artificial intelligence reshaping the employment landscape, that familiar promise is beginning to look increasingly uncertain.In a thought-provoking column in The Times of India, author, columnist and screenwriter Chetan Bhagat raises an uncomfortable question: are Indian families preparing their children for a job market that is rapidly disappearing?The numbers certainly warrant attention.

According to staffing firm HAN Digital, fresh graduate recruitment in India's IT-BPM sector fell from an estimated four lakh in FY22 to 1.75 lakh in FY26, a decline of 56%. Nasscom data shows that net jobs added by India's technology industry dropped even more sharply, from 4.45 lakh to 1.35 lakh over the same period.Yet engineering enrolments have moved in the opposite direction, rising from 9.2 lakh to 13.5 lakh, according to data cited in Bhagat's column.

The contrast is striking: India now has roughly ten engineering enrolments for every net new technology job added, compared with two in FY22. The problem is not engineering itself, but the assumption that an engineering degree automatically translates into employment.

AI is accelerating this mismatch. Tasks traditionally assigned to fresh graduates, including basic coding, software testing, legal research, preparing presentations and routine customer support, can increasingly be handled by AI tools.

The impact is not restricted to IT; law, consulting, finance and several other white-collar professions face similar disruption.Bhagat also highlights a less obvious danger: what happens to the next generation of experienced professionals if companies stop hiring freshers?

Today's entry-level employees are tomorrow's managers, specialists and industry leaders. Without opportunities to learn on the job, organisations could eventually face a shortage of experienced talent.Why students and parents need to rethink career choices The answer, however, is not to abandon education or engineering.

It is to rethink what education should deliver. Students must move beyond degrees and develop practical skills, problem-solving abilities and the capacity to work alongside AI. Understanding and using AI productively could become as important as computer literacy once was.There is also a need to challenge India's deep-rooted bias against blue-collar professions.

Skilled electricians, plumbers, automobile technicians and other tradespeople may increasingly command better opportunities than graduates chasing shrinking entry-level corporate jobs. As Bhagat points out, working with one's hands should not be considered inferior to working behind a computer.The future belongs to those who can adapt Ultimately, India's employment challenge is as much about changing mindsets as it is about changing technology.

Parents, students, colleges and employers must recognise that the old career playbook is no longer guaranteed to work.An engineering degree may still open doors, but it cannot promise a job. In an AI-driven world, the real currency of success will be adaptability, practical competence and the ability to keep learning.The question for India's next generation is no longer simply what degree they will earn, but what value they will bring to a rapidly changing world.

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