Fewer births, bigger questions for Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu recorded nearly 45,000 fewer births in 2025 than the previous year.

Tamil Nadu recorded nearly 45,000 fewer births in 2025 than the previous year, with the number of births falling by 5.3% from 8.47 lakh in 2024 to 8.02 lakh, pointing to a continuing decline in births in the State.

The decline comes against the backdrop of a long-term fall in fertility in the State. In 2026, five lakh-odd births were recorded so far, according to Civil Registration System data.”

While the decline in births reflects a broader demographic transition, with implications for the workforce and ageing population, experts say greater attention must be paid to education, childcare, social security, elderly care and standard of living.

T. Sundararaman, former executive director, National Health Systems Resource Centre, said the total fertility rate among women of reproductive age fell below the replacement level of 2.1 in Tamil Nadu nearly 20 years ago. “We continued to have a positive population growth rate because of population momentum. We have now moved beyond this phenomenon and a decline in the population is likely to occur,” he said.

S. Irudaya Rajan, chairperson, International Institute for Migration and Development, Thiruvananthapuram, pointed out that Tamil Nadu is better placed compared with Kerala, which has recorded around three lakh births.

“There will be no short-term impact. The State government can focus on creating a productive, healthy population of eight lakh-plus by investing in quality education over the next 20 to 25 years. The focus should be on quality rather than quantity,” he said.

“First of all, there is no need to worry about the low fertility rate or the decline in births,” Padmavathi Srinivasan, independent research consultant in demography, said, adding: “This opens up opportunities to increase and improve the standard of living and enable people to better access the State’s resources. The State government should seize this opportunity and capitalise on low fertility.”

Observing that politicians would worry about what would happen to the State’s labour force, she said, “but this is the time to focus on education and employment opportunities. Tamil Nadu is a prosperous State, but this prosperity needs to translate to better living standards.”

“It would be an injustice if the State focussed on increasing fertility and channelled government funds towards it. Rather, it should focus on the existing population, especially the youth. The State should pay attention to the foundations, such as quality education and the nutritional status of children. There are still pockets of people living in poverty, those who have no access to opportunities and have not benefitted from the State’s economic growth.”

Financial incentives to reverse low fertility rates have never worked, as evidenced in many developed countries, she said, asking: “So, why go down that route, when there are much more pressing issues we need to tackle.”

Professor Rajan said the State government’s “Thaimaman Thanga Mothiram Thittam”, under which one-gram gold rings will be gifted to babies born in government hospitals, is unlikely to help increase births. Increasing maternity leave to women government employees for a third child cannot be considered a meaningful incentive, he believed.

Policies alone will not help much. At best, they may add another 5,000-odd births, he said. “Children are assets, but when you ask couples today, many consider them liabilities. This mindset should change. Increasing the fertility rate is not simple, given factors such as delayed marriages. To motivate young couples to have children, we need out-of-the-box, innovative ideas.”

Professor Sundararaman said increasing longevity means that there will be more people aged 65 or 70 and above. “At the same time, we will have less working age population and a larger elderly population that needs to be cared for. This has already happened in most developed countries that have stronger social security systems and better elderly care,” he said.

“I am less worried about productivity and more concerned about social security and elderly care. We need policies that anticipate these changes,” he added.

Efforts simply to increase childbearing are unlikely to work. What can make a difference is providing child care support for the first two children, he said. “We need to have innovative thinking and creative community-based efforts for elderly care. Our priorities should include elderly care, social security, child care support, good quality primary education and measures that make it easier for working women for childcare. Funds should be better utilised to establish facilities, such as creches for working women,” he added.