India’s soybean imports may touch record high 1 mt in the current season on fall in domestic supply

India’s soyabean imports for the oil year 2025-26 ending September are likely to be at an all-time high, touching about a million tonnes, driven by a shortfall in domestic supplies. In the previous year, soyabean imports stood at a mere 0.02 lakh tonnes.

With rains playing truant and weak monsoon seen impacting the current kharif 2026 crop amidst a dip in planted area, the imports are likely to be sustained in the new oil year. As per the latest demand supply estimates by the trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), soyabean imports stood at 9.34 lakh tonnes during October-August period of oil year 2025-26.

Including the purchases for September, the total imports are likely to top 9.5 lakh tonnes. The previous high in soyabean imports were about 7 lakh tonnes during 2022-23. India, an exporter of soyabean till 2017-18 turned a net importer during 2018-19 and since then the import volumes were on the rise till 2022-23.

Imports came down during 2023-24 and 2024-25, before rebounding to an all time high in the current year. India imports mainly the non-genetically modified soyabean. The Indian soyabean imports are mainly from the least developed countries (LDCs) in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Niger, Togo and Nigeria, where the non-GM varieties are largely grown.

SOPA had estimated soyabean production of 110.26 lakh tonnes for 2025-26, about 14 per cent lower than 128.82 lakh tonnes a year ago, due to a decline in area and the output being impacted by weather vagaries. Total crushing for the oil year 2025-26 are estimated lower at 104.50 lakh tonnes down from previous year’s 113.50 lakh tonnes.

As a result of lower crushing, the production of soyabean meal is expected to be lower at 82.46 lakh tonnes (89.56 lakh tonnes in the previous year). Consumption by the feed sector is projected marginally higher at 63 lakh tonnes for the year (62 lah tonnes last year), while the off-take from the food sector is estimated higher at 9 lakh tonnes (8 lakh tonnes).

Exports of soyabean meal have halved to 10 lakh tonnes from previous year’s 20.23 lakh tonnes on lack of price parity. As per the latest data from the Agriculture Ministry, soyabean has been planted in about 122.08 lakh hectares this kharif, a tad lower than last year 123 lh.

Parts of key growing regions in States such as Maharasthra and Karnataka among others have faced deficit rains, which is likely to impact the crop size. The USDA Post has revised India’s 2026-27 soyabean acreage and production estimates downwards due to erratic monsoon rains and farmer diversification towards cotton and corn.

Post estimates harvested area at 10.5 million hectares (mh), down 6 per cent from earlier forecast of 11.2 mh. “Irregular rainfall during the planting window disrupted sowing operations and required replanting in parts of Maharashtra, a leading soybean-producing state.

Compounding this, farmers increasingly diverted acreage to cotton, drawn by stronger market prices, and to corn, motivated by improved income prospects” it said in a recent report. The USDA has projected India’s soyabean imports at 5 lakh tonnes, contingent on favourable harvest in Benin, Niger and Togo, the LDC-classified nations at zero tariff arrangement.

“Tight domestic supplies and four-year-high local prices have intensified India’s dependence on non-GM suppliers across Sub-Saharan Africa. Looking ahead, however, expanding processing capacity within African supplier nations is expected to reduce the volume of soybeans available for export to India in marketing year 2026-27.” the USDA said.

Soyabean prices have been ruling high above the minimum support prices levels over the past couple of months on tight supplies. The Government had increased the MSP for soyabean by 7 per cent to Rs 5708 per quintal. However, the mandi prices for the 2025-26 crop ruled high during July-August, above the MSP levels averaging in the range of Rs 6500-7300 per quintal.