‘Intensifying’ El Niño to persist until March 2027; strongest ever since 1950, says NOAA
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- ✓The UN organisation further said that the current El Niño event continues to intensify, and would become the “strongest ever since 1950”.
- ✓The ENSO phase is subject to the Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) value — the sea surface temperature measured over the Nino 3.4 region.
- ✓An El Niño event is declared when the average RONI value surpasses 0.5 degree Celsius, an average considered over three months.
El Niño will continue to remain ‘strong’ to ‘very strong’ during the first quarter of 2027, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday. The UN organisation further said that the current El Niño event continues to intensify, and would become the “strongest ever since 1950”.
It is set to shatter all previously known records with respective to the sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon associated with warm seas along the equatorial Pacific Oceans.
El Niño alters rain patterns, spikes temperatures, increases incidents of wild fires, leads to extreme weather in the form of fluids or droughts across the world. It is one of the three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the other two being ENSO neutral and La Nina (cool).
The ENSO phase is subject to the Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) value — the sea surface temperature measured over the Nino 3.4 region. An El Niño event is declared when the average RONI value surpasses 0.5 degree Celsius, an average considered over three months.
“The chances for a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 (+2.5 degrees Celsius or more) are now around 60% for the October-December and November-January periods,” the NOAA said. Since October, the sea surface temperature recorded farther to the west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded 4 degrees Celsius — the first ever confirmed since 1950s when the data gathering commenced.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had, in October this year, warned of off-the-charts temperature values to emerge, which now stands confirmed.
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| Issuing Authority | The Indian Express National |
|---|---|
| Topic Category | POLITICS |
| Jurisdiction | All India / National |
| Publication Date | 13 November 2026 |