Putin had four plans to defeat Ukraine. He only has two left.

The aftermath of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv on Thursday.But Putin’s other two bets have a better chance of succeeding by next year: paralyzing Ukraine’s economy with relentless missile and drone strikes, and waiting for European support to falter as political parties that oppose aid for Kyiv gain popularity.

This week’s U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi showed that the Kremlin remains committed to its original war aims: dismembering and subjugating Ukraine while rewriting Europe’s post-Cold War order. “All the objectives we have set ourselves will be achieved,” Moscow’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky told Russian state TV on Wednesday.

Putin will likely wait to see how his stratagems play out in early 2027, most observers say, before deciding whether to stay the course or adjust it. “The spring is what the Russians will be waiting for. They want to see what this missile campaign delivers,” as well as who wins France’s coming presidential election, said Hanna Notte, Eurasia director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif.

“And then they’ll take stock.” Even then, Russia is more likely to review its strategy than give up its goals, Notte says. After President Trump returned to the White House last year promising to end the war in a day, the Kremlin hoped he would force Ukraine into territorial and other concessions.

Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “You don’t have the cards right now.” But despite U.S. pressure, Kyiv rejected Putin’s demands to hand over territory that Russian forces had failed to conquer. Trump’s early move to end nearly all U.S.

military and financial aid for Ukraine also reduced the White House’s leverage. The U.S. can still pressure Ukraine. Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukrainian forces are experiencing disruptions to their military-grade Starlink satellite internet service, provided by Elon Musk’s SpaceX in coordination with the Pentagon.

Musk also limited Ukraine’s military Starlink in October, amid tensions between Trump and Zelensky. Moscow has worked to persuade the White House to lift sanctions, even without a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin has dangled the prospect of lucrative business deals to U.S.

investors in the orbit of Trump and his peace envoys. The economic initiatives have largely failed to gain traction, despite the White House relaxing some sanctions and U.S. officials advocating for economic deals with Russia as part of a peace drive.

The Democratic takeover of Congress after this month’s U.S. midterm elections could make it harder for the Trump administration to ease sanctions further. Despite Trump’s overtures to Putin, the Kremlin was hoping for more, and Russian officials haven’t hidden their disappointment with Ukraine’s continued resistance.

Putin’s chief foreign-policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said in late October that the Americans had “precious little” to offer on the negotiating table. “Putin is painfully aware of Trump’s limitations at the moment, which is why he will continue fighting until the situation in Ukraine changes or he sees some sort of shifts in Europe,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of Russia-focused consulting firm R.Politik.

Russia this year has had its worst performance on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine since 2022. Efforts to encircle Ukraine’s defensive bastions in the eastern Donetsk region failed. Russia is making one last push for a breakthrough before winter makes advancing even harder.

But so far, Ukraine’s army is holding, despite its chronic manpower shortages. Russia has suffered more than 450,000 military deaths since the start of the war, according to data from Russian official statistics agency Rosstat obtained by hackers linked to Ukraine and the Belarusian opposition.

Even those numbers omit many soldiers killed since mid-2025, and the total could be closer to 600,000 now, some analysts said. Earlier this year, Russia replaced senior army commanders inside Ukraine, partly in response to criticism of the massive casualties.

But Russia’s offensive efforts continue to struggle under a sky filled with drones, a revolution in warfare that, for now, favors the defender. “Winter is usually the best time for Russia’s advancing troops, but the Ukrainian drone presence on the front line is now so overwhelming that only periods of poor weather, which limit drone operations, are likely to allow Russian forces to make significant advances,” said Konrad Muzyka, founder of military analysis firm Rochan Consulting, based in Poland.

With the battlefield largely stagnant, Moscow has escalated its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s cities and critical infrastructure, from power plants and warehouses to Black Sea grain ports and the bridges over the wide Dnipro River that bisects the country.