Record global heat, rising climate risks, finance tensions dominate COP31 day one

The 12 years from 2015 to 2026 are on course to be the warmest on record, with global average temperatures between January and September this year reaching around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an update.

The WMO’s State of the Climate Update 2026 was released on the opening day of the 11-day 20th UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey’s Antalya. Australia and Turkey took over the COP31 presidency, marking the beginning of an unusual joint arrangement.

(AFP)The update said the years 2023-2026 were the four hottest on record, and global ocean heat content is on track to record its 10th consecutive annual high. The global mean sea level has reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993.

The WMO warned that an intensifying El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures that affects rainfall and temperature patterns, is expected to reach significant strength by December. It could further raise temperatures and increase the risks of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall well into 2027.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world was entering an era of increasingly severe climate extremes, with the human and economic costs continuing to rise. The WMO update underlined the importance of sustained climate observations and early warning systems in helping countries prepare for these growing risks.

Australia and Turkey took over the COP31 presidency, marking the beginning of an unusual joint arrangement. Turkey is hosting the summit under COP31 President Murat Kurum. Australia’s Chris Bowen will lead the negotiations.

Kurum and Bowen raised their clasped hands together, signalling a united front, following the ceremonial handover from outgoing COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago. Beyond the symbolism, the two countries have their work cut out.

Kurum said he wants COP31 to be an “implementation COP,” guided by dialogue, consensus and action. The emphasis is on moving beyond declarations and ensuring existing climate commitments translate into tangible outcomes on the ground.

Kurum said the 1.5°C goal would continue to guide the presidency. He stressed the need to bridge the gap between countries that have access to finance and technology and those that remain vulnerable. Kurum outlined Turkey’s 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, which seeks to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035 through renewables, stronger grids, energy storage and clean transport.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell reinforced the implementation message. He said COP31 must supercharge solutions, including faster deployment of renewables, reducing methane emissions and making committed climate finance easier to access.

The first major test for negotiations arose before substantive discussions could gather momentum. The African Group chair and negotiating team spent much of the night working through disagreements around the agenda. The Climate Finance Work Programme eventually made it onto the agreed agenda.

Finance remains one of the biggest fault lines between developed and developing countries. Vulnerable nations are demanding greater support to deal with the impacts of climate change. But questions remain over how existing commitments will be delivered and whether the money will reach countries that need it.

The tripling of adaptation finance particularly remains contentious. Countries are looking for progress on the commitments made under the new climate finance goal agreed at COP29 in Baku of mobilising at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035.

This was to be alongside efforts to scale up overall financing to $1.3 trillion annually. The negotiations will test whether countries can move from broad commitments to clearer mechanisms for delivering funds. In his opening address, Bowen noted that the countries needing climate finance most often receive the least.

On the opening day of COP31, the Nepalese delegation called attention to the devastating consequences of glacial collapse, floods and other climate-related disasters in the Himalayas. Sagar Dhakal, a Nepalese lawmaker, described the scale of the disaster, which left around 10,000 people dead within 10 minutes following the glacier collapse.

He said the damage wiped out around 10% of Nepal’s GDP.