"Sure Sign Of Intellectual Dishonesty": SBI Research On Doubts Being Raised On GDP Growth Data

Researchers at the State Bank of India (SBI) on Wednesday sought to debunk doubts over the latest GDP growth data. "It is difficult to understand why some sections/people are unable to digest that the Indian economy grew by a robust 7.8 per cent," the SBI Ecowrap said.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, also spoke to NDTV in the context of doubts raised by former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan, former finance secretary Subhsh Chandra Garg, and some Congress leaders, among others.

He echoed the research assertion that "an unnecessary controversy was created by incorrect data interpretation". "Last year in August, when the National Statistical Office (NSO) released the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the April-June quarter (for 2025-26), the base year was 2011-12, and the nominal GDP thus was Rs 86.1 lakh crore," explained Ghosh, who is also a member of the 16th Finance Commission.

In this year's release on August 31, the base year was 2022-23, hence that number was revised downwards to Rs 80 lakh crore, he noted, adding that the latest GDP numbers for this April-June stand at Rs 88.3 lakh crore. That is the basis of the 7.8 per cent growth rate.

He said "some estimates are now ascribing a 2.6% growth" for the latest quarter by comparing this quarter's Rs 88.3 lakh crore with the old figure of Rs 86.1 lakh crore from the same quarter last year. "This is completely unsolicited and a sure sign of intellectual dishonesty," he said.

He stressed that the correct comparison would be the Rs 88.3 lakh crore of the latest quarter with the revised figure of Rs 80.4 lakh crore from the corresponding quarter a year ago. He said GDP data revisions based on the base year do not always go downwards.

"In fact, past data (on old base) indicate that quarterly numbers get revised in both upward and downward directions, though mostly in upward directions." The research document added, "This is perfectly legitimate... Revisions are part and parcel of a GDP number." These revisions are aimed at incorporating more recent factors, it argued.

He cited the instance from three years earlier when, "if any one of you remember, the GDP growth as per the old series was 9.2 per cent and that was brought down to 7.2". He added, "After the Covid pandemic, India's GDP contraction was 5.8 per cent." He argued further, "It is always fair to look into the data more rigorously and more meticulously instead of just saying this number is not correct or this should have been the number."