‘Very’ strong El Nino emerging, to last till Feb 2027: WMO

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday warned of an impending “very strong” El Nino that could last till February of next year and could alter temperature and rainfall patterns globally. “El Nino is firmly established and is expected to strengthen.

It has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at a press briefing on Thursday.

El Nino is a natural ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is caused when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms significantly and interferes with weather patterns globally. It is known to trigger extreme weather — heatwaves, wet spells and extreme temperatures.

The intensity of El Nino is determined by the sea surface temperature average over three months in the Nino 3.4 region along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In recent months, this temperature index value surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during May-July and further escalated 2 degrees Celsius mark above normal in July, confirming the rapid intensification.

Europe, this year, witnessed one of the hottest summers in recent decades and August, according to many global weather agencies, reported record temperatures in many parts of the globe. The UN agency's chief noted that this El Nino episode was pushing resources to their limits and will require extensive preparations and coordination to tide over the extreme weather.

She said: “Never before in the 50-year history of the WMO have we launched such a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.” The India Meteorological Department (IMD), earlier this month, confirmed that the monsoon rainfall in the later half of August came under the cloud of El Nino.

But, with three-fourths of the season over, the monsoon has largely escaped the developing El Nino. WMO further said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — the Indian Ocean counterpart of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — was likely to develop during September-November.

“A positive phase of the IOD is also expected to develop with a seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees Celsius,” WMO said. The positive phase of IOD could counter El Nino and in late August, the IOD had, briefly, swung towards the positive phase but returned to neutral, the IMD said.

Even though the Met Department in India is yet to spell the post-monsoon seasonal forecast, the intensifying El Nino could keep cold at bay during the upcoming winter season, experts suggested.