$1.5 b wheat export opportunity for India, says Assocham study

Record production, comfortable stocks, competitive prices and the gradual reopening of exports give India a strong base to become a reliable global wheat supplier which could help unlock an export opportunity of more than $1.5 billion for India, according to ASSOCHAM.

It noted that the global wheat market is changing due to weather disruptions, geopolitical tensions, higher freight costs and fluctuations in production and prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict had affected the traditional supply routes while extreme weather is creating uncertainty for major producers. These developments are also pushing large wheat-importing countries to look for more diversified and reliable sources.

The USDA has projected that global wheat production will decline from a record 844 million tonnes (mt) in 2025-26 to around 819 mt in 2026-27, while demand is expected to remain strong. The USDA stated the primary contributors to this decline in wheat production will be major exporting nations, including the US, the European Union, Argentina and Australia.

India produced a record 121 mt of wheat in 2025-26 against domestic consumption of around 111 mt. This is enough to meet domestic demand and support exports. As of May 28, 2026, wheat stock in the Central pool stood at 51.3 mt against the prescribed buffer norm of 27.5 mt for July 1.

This comfortable supply position gives India room to increase exports over time without affecting domestic food security. Earlier this year, The Government’s decision to reopen exports, including approval of 2.5 mt of wheat and 0.5 mt of wheat products in February 2026 followed by another 2.5 mt in April reflects the improvement in domestic availability, the study said.

Mentioning that India has a strong price advantage, the study said the FY2026-27 wheat MSP (minimum support price) is around $268 per tonne compared with an international wheat price of about $303 per tonne in May 2026. The nearly $35 per tonne difference gives Indian wheat room to compete globally while farmers continue to benefit from assured MSP-based returns.

India also compares favourably with other major wheat producers. Russia has lower domestic wheat prices, but India has the advantage of a large production base and proximity to major Asian and West Asian markets. Despite being the world’s largest wheat producer, China remains a net importer, while India can meet domestic demand and still maintain an exportable surplus, it said.

Recently, the government has shifted the export policy of specified wheat varieties, wheat flour and related products from ‘Prohibited’ to ‘Free’. The move covers wheat, durum wheat, atta, maida, semolina / rava and related products.

“This liberalisation is expected to provide greater market access for Indian wheat and wheat-based products, support export earnings, expand global market opportunities for Indian producers and processors, and strengthen India’s role in the international wheat trade,” the study said.

India has strong export opportunities in Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria and the Philippines supported by their high import demand. India’s competitive pricing, geographical proximity and comfortable supply position can help expand its wheat exports while supporting farmers and strengthening India’s role in global food security.

India’s geographical location offers shorter shipping distances and lower freight costs to major importing countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia. These advantages improve the overall competitiveness of Indian wheat compared with supplies from many other exporting nations, it said.

Whenever India has had a comfortable surplus and exports have been permitted, shipments have increased significantly. This was clearly seen in 2021-22, when wheat exports jumped to 7.24 mt, valued at $2.12 billion.

Higher wheat exports can bring more agricultural export earnings, better market opportunities for farmers and stronger integration with global agricultural value chains. Increased exports can also encourage investment in storage, transportation, testing, certification and other export-related infrastructure.

A stronger presence in global wheat markets can also enhance India’s contribution to global food security. As importing countries look for reliable and diversified suppliers, India can offer an additional source of wheat while creating opportunities for farmers, traders, logistics providers and the wider agricultural sector, it said.