Monsoon withdrawal to commence from Sept 19; rain deficit stays at 15%: IMD

The southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from India around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, as the country heads toward the end of a season that has left several major agricultural states with deep rainfall deficits unlikely to be erased.

The monsoon is expected to retreat in west Rajasthan around September 19, compared with the normal withdrawal date of September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began as early as September 14. However, IMD officials said several parts of the country should see a flurry of rain activity this week, particularly in the west, northwest and parts of the south peninsular region.

It said a low-pressure area exists over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat; a trough across Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and MP; and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, near Odisha and West Bengal.

Down south, Isolated heavy spells are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till September; over Kerala and Puducherry’s Mahe town till September 16, over south Karnataka on September 15 and along coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from September 18-20.

In central India, isolated showers are expected over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha till September 20. In east India, fairly widespread activity is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim till September 20, over Bihar on September 16-17 and Odisha from September 19-20.

The all-India monsoon deficit touched -40% in June before widespread rains in July brought it down to -13% by the end of July. It was -14% at the end of August and stood at -15% overall, as of September 13. The deficit is largest in the south peninsula region (-28%), followed by east and northeast India (-25%).

It is at -6% in central India and -10% in northwest India. Among the states in a deficit—and unlikely to make a recovery—included key agrarian states like Punjab (-40%), Haryana (-23%), Rajasthan (-25%), Bihar (-35%), Karnataka (-29%), Kerala (-27%), Telangana (-20%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%), Tamil Nadu (-26%), Arunachal Pradesh (-42%) and Meghalaya (-59%), data shows.

In its August 31 forecast for September, IMD said below normal rainfall (<91% of long period average (LPA)) was likely. The forecast came a fortnight after private weather forecaster Skymet Weather issued a revised forecast for the southwest monsoon season on August 17, saying monsoon rainfall was expected to be 85% of the long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought.

In its initial forecast issued in April, Skymet had forecast the monsoon to be 94% of the LPA. In its April forecast, IMD said the monsoon was likely to be 92% below the LPA this year. However, in its June outlook, it revised this forecast downward — from 92% to 90% — and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season.

Jasjeev Gandhiok is an Assistant Editor with Hindustan Times, where he covers environment, climate change, the clean energy transition and wildlife at the National Bureau. Gandhiok has over a decade of experience in journalism and is based in Delhi.

He has reported extensively on Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). This includes the region&#x27;s air pollution woes, a polluted Yamuna and on urban wildlife still thriving in the region. He joined HT in October 2021.

Prior to that, he had five-year stint at The Times of India in Delhi, where he also covered Delhi, with a focus on environment and wildlife. Gandhiok has covered some recent events around the Capital too, ranging from the farmers&#x27; protests, the northeast Delhi riots and the CAA-NRC protests, reporting from the ground on all of these.

He also travels across the country to report on how environment and climate change impact everyday life, while also writing on endangered species. His reports in 2019 on toxic leachate from Delhi&#x27;s landfills led to the National Green Tribunal (NGT) taking suo motu cognisance and ultimately asking the state government to start bio-mining to flatten and remove all three landfills in the capital.

He also closely tracks the implementation of government policies on climate, renewable energy and environmental protection. His focus remains on impactful, public-interest journalism which explains how environmental decisions affect people&#x27;s everyday lives.Read More